AMC’s latest concert movie release, Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé, is aiming to break the cycle of the post-Thanksgiving/early December slump at the box office. Traditionally, this period is marked by a lack of exciting releases. However, with a projected global opening of $30 million to $40 million, Renaissance has the potential to inject some much-needed energy into the box office. This is the second concert movie ever to receive wide distribution from an exhibitor. Its release comes on the heels of Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, which was a major success, grossing $250 million worldwide. While Renaissance is unlikely to match the domestic opening weekend of Eras Tour ($92.8 million), it still has the chance to lead the box office with a $20 million start domestically and another $20 million internationally.
It is important to note that Beyoncé’s appeal differs significantly from that of Taylor Swift. While Eras Tour attracted a broader audience, Renaissance is particularly popular among Black audiences and older women. This disparity was evident in the first-day presales, with Renaissance accumulating an estimated $6 million compared to Eras Tour’s impressive $37 million. However, Renaissance’s presale numbers at AMC and Regal theaters, which have a strong black moviegoing audience, indicate robust interest. Unfortunately, Cinemark, the third-largest circuit in the US, is not experiencing the same level of excitement. Still, a wide release concert movie opening between $15 million and $20 million is considered substantial. Previous concert movies like Justin Bieber: Never Say Never ($29.5 million in 2011) and Michael Jackson’s This Is It ($23.2 million in 2009) achieved similar levels of success. Even U2’s Rattle & Hum, released in 1988, had a modest first weekend of $3.8 million in 1,391 theaters. Ultimately, Renaissance has the potential to defy expectations and perform admirably at the box office.
One advantage Beyoncé possesses in this competitive landscape is her access to premium large format (PLF) screens and IMAX. These formats will undoubtedly enhance the concert experience for audiences. However, they will also be shared with Toho International’s Godzilla Minus One, limiting the number of screens available to Renaissance. Nevertheless, Beyoncé will be showcased in a substantial 2,539 theaters domestically and an additional 2,780 screens internationally across 94 territories. This wide release is a testament to her global appeal and the anticipation surrounding Renaissance.
Renaissance is expected to generate significant revenue in various international markets. Major contributors to its initial success include Mexico, the UK, South Africa, Kenya, Australia, and Germany. While there are no Rotten Tomatoes reviews available yet, initial reactions are promising. Deadline journalist Katie Campione gave the film a positive review, praising its ability to capture the spectacle and energy of Beyoncé’s Renaissance World Tour. As a concert and documentary hybrid with a running time of two and a half hours, the movie promises an immersive experience for fans and casual viewers alike.
The month of December can be challenging for movie releases, with audiences often preoccupied with holiday activities and events. The current record for the biggest opening in early December belongs to Warner Bros.’ 2003 film, The Last Samurai, which grossed $24.2 million. Additionally, Disney’s Frozen 2 held the top spot in early December 2019, earning $35.1 million in its third weekend. Another factor to consider is Disney’s Wish, which had a lackluster domestic start with $19.6 million over three days and $31.6 million over five days. This underperformance suggests that it is unlikely to lead the box office this weekend.
Industry estimates predict that Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes, the top-grossing film over the Thanksgiving holiday, will experience a 55% decline in its third weekend, grossing approximately $13 million. This Lionsgate release recently joined the $100 million club, becoming the 23rd movie of 2023 to achieve this milestone in the US/Canada market. Toho’s Godzilla Minus One, the first U.S. theatrical release independent of a major studio, is estimated to earn between high single digits and $10 million in its three-day opening. The film has already amassed over $19 million in Japan, indicating potential international success. Angel Studios’ sci-fi movie, The Shift, starring Neal McDonough and Sean Astin, is also expected to have a modest opening in the low single digits. The logline of the film follows a man who must escape a dystopian world to return to his wife after encountering a mysterious stranger.
Despite facing some challenges associated with the post-Thanksgiving period and the December movie landscape, Beyoncé’s Renaissance: A Film has the potential to captivate audiences and deliver a significant box office performance. Its unique appeal to Black audiences and older women, along with Beyoncé’s global star power, positions the movie as a strong contender to lead the box office. With a wide release in both domestic and international markets, Renaissance has the opportunity to showcase Beyoncé’s legendary tour on the big screen. As audiences flock back to theaters, this concert and documentary hybrid promises to be an immersive and unforgettable experience for fans of Beyoncé and music lovers alike.