The highly anticipated Marvel Studios film, The Marvels, is facing a surprising setback as its opening projections continue to plummet. Initially projected to have a weekend opening of $75M-$80M, the estimates have now dropped to around $60M in the United States. Overseas projections are also lower than expected, with a global start of $140M. This unexpected decline in projections has left many wondering what went wrong and why the film is not generating the same level of excitement as previous Marvel releases.
Just three weeks ago, The Marvels was expected to have a strong domestic opening, but projections have since fallen. Some tracking services have even lowered their estimates to $50M+. With an opening in the neighborhood of Ant-Man and lower than Marvel’s Eternals, the film is not living up to the hype. Overseas projections are marginally better at $80M, but even that falls short in comparison to Eternals and Black Widow. It is important to note that international projections could also come in lower than expected, adding to the disappointment.
Currently, pre-sales for The Marvels are just above $5M, which is on par with Warner Bros/DC’s The Flash. Considering The Flash’s underwhelming performance with a $55M start in the U.S., this is certainly a cause for concern. The worry is that if previews, which start on Thursday, surpass $6M, the film’s opening weekend could plummet to $40M+. This uncertainty surrounding pre-sales and preview numbers adds to the overall sense of disappointment surrounding the film’s potential success.
One factor that may have contributed to the lackluster projections is Marvel’s marketing strategy. Unlike previous Marvel films, The Marvels did not receive much promotion at San Diego Comic-Con. With little outdoor signage and a lack of core fanbase engagement, the film failed to create a sense of event and anticipation. The absence of a clear connection to the Avengers canon may have also impacted the perceived importance of the film among Marvel fans. This lack of hype and fan anticipation could be a key reason for the lower than expected projections.
Captain Marvel, the predecessor to The Marvels, was a major success, debuting to $153.4M in the U.S. and $456.7M globally. It boasted the biggest domestic opening ever for a female superhero movie. However, The Marvels is not generating the same level of excitement among audiences, particularly among the key demographic of males aged 18-34. This demographic, which is typically vital for the success of Marvel films, is lacking in their interest for The Marvels. On the other hand, women aged 17-34 have historically been more dependable in terms of attendance. The disparity in audience interest compared to Captain Marvel is certainly a cause for concern.
As media screenings begin and the embargo lifts, fans and audiences will be keen to read reviews of The Marvels. The success or failure of the film may heavily rely on the reception it receives from critics and word of mouth. Eternals, another recent Marvel film, received mixed reviews on Rotten Tomatoes with a 47% rating, but earned an A CinemaScore from audiences. In contrast, Captain Marvel was certified fresh at 79% on Rotten Tomatoes and also received an A CinemaScore. The reviews and word of mouth for The Marvels will play a significant role in its performance at the box office.
Marvel Studios’ The Marvels is facing disappointing opening projections, with estimates continually dropping in the weeks leading up to its release. A combination of factors including a lack of marketing hype, a perceived disconnect from the Avengers canon, and a decline in interest among key demographics could be contributing to the underwhelming projections. Additionally, the role of reviews and word of mouth in shaping audience perception of the film cannot be underestimated. As the film prepares for its release, it remains to be seen if The Marvels can overcome these challenges and capture the attention of audiences, both domestically and internationally.