January often heralds a quieter spell at the box office, particularly during the Martin Luther King Jr. (MLK) weekend. Traditionally, this holiday weekend has seen films resonate with audiences, especially those premiering in January. However, 2024 seems to be a dull affair with projections indicating a lackluster performance from new releases.
Analyzing Box Office Predictions
As we approach the MLK weekend, analysts forecast that Sony’s latest offering, the R-rated female-led comedy titled *One of Them Days*, might be the only title that could defy expectations. Historically, the top film during this weekend since the pandemic has grossed over $33 million across a four-day span. This trend is particularly noticeable for either newly opened films or strong holdovers from previous weeks. However, Universal and Blumhouse’s *Wolf Man*, despite an affordable production budget of $25 million not including prints and advertising costs, is anticipated to bring in only around $20 million for the same period – falling short of the figures set by its predecessors.
*Wolf Man*, directed by Leigh Whannell, had a relatively lackluster preview performance, garnering $1.4 million in ticket sales on its first day. Comparatively, this figure slightly surpassed Lionsgate’s *Den of Thieves*, which raked in $1.35 million at preview screenings but could not match the earlier achievements of *The Invisible Man*, which had a $1.65 million haul in previews before debuting at $28.2 million. The cast, which includes Julia Garner and Christopher Abbott, has received mixed reviews; their Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 55%, with a more favorable audience score of 67%. Such ratings indicate lower audience enthusiasm compared to *The Invisible Man*, which was hailed with a 91% critic acclaim and an 88% audience appreciation rate.
Conversely, *One of Them Days*, starring Keke Palmer and SZA, strikes a distinctly positive chord with critics, boasting a 96% approval rating and receiving audience scores upwards of 94%. Interestingly, this film marks a resurgence of the R-rated female comedy genre, the last similar release being the successful *Girls Trip* in 2017. Despite these promising figures, *One of Them Days* is projected to open between $7 million and $9 million over the traditional three-day weekend, hoping to break into the double digits when accounting for the entire four-day frame.
The film’s narrative follows two best friends who find themselves in a desperate situation when it is revealed that Alyssa’s boyfriend has squandered their rent money. The comedic escapade pushes the characters to their limits as they frantically attempt to gather the funds necessary to avoid eviction and, simultaneously, salvage their friendship.
In comparison, the *Girls Trip* entries had a more robust turnout, starting with $1.7 million at previews and opening to a whopping $31 million, defying initial projections of merely low to mid $20 million. It certainly raises the question: Why is *One of Them Days* not reaching similar hype levels prior to its release, despite being produced by the same team behind *Girls Trip*? Awareness seems to play a significant role, as *One of Them Days* has not amassed notable brand recognition, sitting at less than 1% in unaided awareness—a stark contrast to *Wolf Man*.
Industry analysts at Quorum have pointed out the nuanced dynamics between the two films: *Wolf Man* appeals to a broader audience due to its established franchise name, which has cultivated high awareness and interest, albeit with subdued reviews. Meanwhile, while *One of Them Days* garners critical acclaim, its reach prior to release appears limited, putting its earnings into question. The competitive tension between these two films will surely provide insights into audience preferences and the current societal climate toward female-led comedic narratives, as both aim to capture the ever-elusive box office success.
As we step into this MLK weekend, the contrasting trajectories of *One of Them Days* and *Wolf Man* symbolize a broader conversation about audience engagement and marketing strategies in a post-Covid film industry landscape. Will *One of Them Days* leverage its critical acclaim into solid box office performance, or will *Wolf Man*’s familiar branding win the weekend? Only time and ticket sales will tell.