The only substantial theatrical release hitting cinemas this weekend is Paramount’s highly anticipated sequel, “Smile 2.” Initial presales suggest it could bring in a respectable revenue in the high teens. Predictions earlier in the week hinted at a more promising $20 million-plus debut. The film’s potential success hinges significantly on its ability to engage Latino and Hispanic audiences; how these demographics respond could elevate this $28 million sequel beyond expectations. The original “Smile” became notable in the landscape of post-Covid cinema, demonstrating how a significant Hollywood studio, backed by a streaming service, strategically shifted a movie from a home release to a robust theatrical debut following extensive testing.
The first installment in this horror franchise premiered with an impressive $22.6 million and ultimately grossed $105.9 million domestically and a staggering $217.4 million worldwide. Such performance stands in contrast to other studios, like Disney, which opted to limit their releases, as seen with “Hocus Pocus 2,” which did not receive a theatrical run despite promising test audiences. The continuation of “Smile” sees the return of its original director and writer, Parker Finn. The storyline follows a new character, played by Naomi Scott, who embarks on a journey rife with unforeseen terror, paralleling the struggles of fame with the haunting remnants of her past.
Critics have received “Smile 2” favorably, with it currently holding an 86% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes based on 36 reviews. This is a commendable feat following its predecessor’s 80% certification. Nevertheless, there is a significant factor at play regarding expectations for box office earnings. The original “Smile” debuted in a relatively barren horror market, leading to a unique opportunity for success. As recent releases have filled the screens, including R-rated entries, challenges lie ahead for “Smile 2.”
The film’s theatrical distribution includes 3,500 screens, some planned for Premium Large Formats (PLFs), yet there’s an absence of IMAX screenings since those are tied up with Warner Bros.’ “Joker: Folie a Deux” for the next three weeks. The audience demographic skews towards younger females, competing against male-centric horror films like “Terrifier 3,” which managed a robust $2.2 million on its first day, contributing to a five-day gross of $23.7 million.
As the industry swings into the weekend, projections suggest that “Smile 2” could see a 60% decline in its second-week performance, equating to around $7.6 million in revenues. However, there is speculation that the unique merits of this unrated horror film might lead to a stronger hold than anticipated. The competition is fierce, and with various horror options now available to audiences, it remains to be seen how this latest installment will navigate the tumultuous waters of theatrical releases and audience expectations. As movies continue to evolve in this new cinematic era, the performance of “Smile 2” could shape the future of the horror genre and the release strategies of studios moving forward.