The film industry has experienced significant changes in recent years, with the simultaneous arrival of Covid lockdowns and a streaming revolution. One notable trend accompanying these changes is the extreme top-loading at the box office. This article explores the implications of this trend and raises the question of whether the film industry would benefit from a shift in focus towards a more balanced distribution of box-office success.
In 2023, three films – Barbie, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – accounted for 17.8 percent of the domestic theatrical total, amounting to approximately $1.6 billion in ticket sales. While this percentage is slightly lower than the average share of the top three films in the previous three Covid-distorted years, it is significantly higher than in earlier years. In the five “normal” years between 2015 and 2019, the top-grossing three films only represented around 14.5 percent of the box office.
One possible explanation for the increased dominance of the top films is the disappearance of lower and middle-range films, which have struggled to attract audiences in recent years. The audience’s attention seems to be concentrated on a small number of high-profile releases, driven by factors such as the evaporation of lower- and middle-range films, the changing demographic of moviegoers, and the influence of social media. This concentration of interest has resulted in a narrow range of films enjoying success, while the majority of films struggle to make an impact.
Analyzing the box office figures further reveals the challenges faced by the lower ranks of films. After subtracting the earnings of the top three films, approximately 580 films shared the remaining $7.4 billion in box-office revenue in 2023. This equates to an average earnings of $12.7 million per film. In comparison, in 2010, a larger group of around 650 films earned an average of about $14.5 million each, representing a 14 percent higher average than in 2023. These figures demonstrate that the box office has become heavily skewed towards the top, making it increasingly difficult for films outside of the elite group to thrive.
The top-loading of the box office has significant implications for the film industry as a whole. While streaming revenue has helped offset some of the challenges, the overemphasis on a small number of films limits opportunities for diverse content and emerging talent. It creates a barrier for aspiring filmmakers and production companies, as securing financial success becomes increasingly challenging in a landscape dominated by blockbusters and established franchises. Furthermore, the heavy concentration of revenue in a few films may inhibit innovation and risk-taking, as studios prioritize proven formulas over creative experimentation.
If the goal is to create a healthier film industry, it may be necessary to reconsider the distribution of box-office success. Instead of a small number of films dominating the market, a more inclusive approach that supports a wider range of films could generate greater overall revenue. This would require a shift in audience behavior and an increased appetite for exploring lesser-known films. Embracing diversity in filmmaking and promoting a variety of genres and storytelling styles could lead to a more vibrant and sustainable industry.
The film industry’s top-loading trend at the box office poses challenges for both filmmakers and audiences. While the success of blockbuster films is undeniable, the lack of balance and opportunities for other films threatens the industry’s long-term health and creativity. Finding a way to distribute success more evenly and encourage a broader range of films to thrive is crucial for a thriving and inclusive film industry. It is time to reevaluate the dominance of the top films and make room for a more diverse and dynamic cinematic landscape.