The $200M Justice League standalone superhero movie The Flash is finally hitting theaters, after a year-plus of tabloid headlines about its star Ezra Miller, but the overseas opening is expected to be better than domestic. Despite a very good response out of CinemaCon and DC co-boss James Gunn exclaiming that the pic is “probably one of the greatest superhero movies ever made”, along with reports on how the movie is ready to reset the DC-verse, The Flash has been sitting around $70M-$75M on tracking for quite some time.
Reasons Behind Stalled Forecast on Flash
There are two other wide releases aimed at non-fanboys: Disney/Pixar’s Elemental with around $35M (possibly even $40M+), and Lionsgate’s Tim Story-directed horror comedy The Blackening, which is looking at $6M-$8M U.S./Canada. Also, strong holds are expected for Transformers: Rise of the Beasts and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, earning potentially $30M apiece. The immediate go-to reason for the stalled forecast on Flash is Warners’ sidelining of Miller during the media tour. Furthermore, a majority of the cast haven’t really been out there doing a ton of interviews. That said, director Andy Muschietti and producer sister Barbara Muschietti have been doing a world tour for the pic, talking it up extensively.
However, despite what many sources bill as a great date for The Flash, and a great marketing campaign with spots selling Batman and The Flash, as opposed to Miller, the DC superhero’s projections haven’t budged. At the same time, a $70M-$75M start for the first installment of a superhero movie is more common than you think — and some distribution sources even remark that it is very commendable start for a movie that was plagued by the off-set controversies of its star.
Overseas Release and Other Movies
The Flash speeds into 78 overseas markets this week, beginning with 15 on Wednesday that includes France, the UK and Korea. It will add a further 47 on Thursday, with such majors as Germany, Italy, Australia and all of Latin America. Currently, the opening international box office estimate is in the $85M-$95M range.
Disney is pushing the 3D aspect of the movie. Some see a world where Elemental tips over $40M at 4,000 theaters, but its presales are tracking 35%-40% behind that of last summer’s Lightyear, which was a dud with a $50.5M opening. Lionsgate’s The Blackening is set to launch in roughly 1,775 locations. No reviews yet on Rotten Tomatoes. Also opening in six locations in LA and NYC is Focus Features’ new Wes Anderson movie, Asteroid City.