Warner Bros/DC’s highly-anticipated film Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is set to hit theaters on December 22, and the latest tracking shows a promising outlook. According to reports, the film is expected to open with a solid range of $50 million to $60 million for the four-day weekend. Despite the Christmas Eve falling on a Sunday, which typically sees a decline in moviegoing attendance, all films, including Aquaman 2, are projected to experience a significant spike in audience numbers on Christmas Day. This positive tracking reflects the anticipation and excitement surrounding the sequel to the successful first installment.
While the projected opening weekend for Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom may seem modest compared to other box office hits, it is important to remember the success of the first film. Aquaman, directed by James Wan, opened with a weekend gross of $67.8 million. However, its success didn’t stop there. The film went on to achieve remarkable longevity in theaters, accumulating a total gross of $1.1 billion worldwide. This made Aquaman the highest-grossing Warner Bros DC movie of all time. The film’s impressive box office performance was due in large part to its strong performance in China, where it earned $291.8 million. However, it’s worth noting that the sequel won’t benefit from these specific markets due to external factors such as Hollywood’s boycott of the Ukraine War and China’s changing attitude towards U.S. tentpole movies.
It’s important not to jump to conclusions about superhero fatigue, as the success of Aquaman can attest to the enduring popularity of the genre. The first film received an A- CinemaScore, indicating positive reception from audiences. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom now has the advantage of being the dominant film during the Christmas holiday, with limited competition from other tentpole releases. Instead, the holiday season will be marked by a strong presence of award contenders like A24’s Iron Claw, Amazon MGM’s The Boys in the Boat, NEON’s Ferrari, and Warner Bros.’ The Color Purple. This lack of direct competition creates a favorable environment for Aquaman 2 to attract audiences throughout the holiday season.
While Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is expected to rule the Christmas frame, there are a few counterprogramming options releasing on December 22. Sony will release the romcom Anyone But You, starring Glen Powell and Sydney Sweeney, while Illumination and Universal will unveil the animated bird pic Migration. However, the robust opening of Warner Bros.’ Wonka, expected to gross $40 million on December 15, suggests that the studio’s trio of films – Wonka, Aquaman 2, and The Color Purple – will dominate the Christmas box office.
Aquaman 2 has already shown strong unaided awareness among male moviegoers, with higher interest levels than other highly anticipated projects like The Marvels, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, and The Flash. This indicates a solid fan base eagerly anticipating the release of the sequel. To leverage this enthusiasm, advance ticket sales for Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom were launched early, coinciding with Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Despite the lack of an intense marketing campaign thus far, the film’s star, Jason Momoa, hosted Saturday Night Live, generating additional buzz surrounding the film.
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is poised to continue the success of its predecessor by delivering an exciting and visually stunning superhero adventure. The film benefits from the strong foundation established by the first Aquaman, which resonated with audiences around the world. With a promising outlook in tracking, a favorable release window, and a dedicated fanbase, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is set to be a box office hit this holiday season. Audiences can once again dive into the stunning underwater world and follow the thrilling journey of Aquaman.