Disney/Lucasfilm’s highly anticipated film, “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” is projected to earn an estimated $6 million-$7.5 million on Thursday night, according to sources. These numbers align with the performance of previous older-skewing action films. For comparison, “No Time to Die” grossed $6.3 million on its Thursday night preview and went on to earn $55.2 million in its opening weekend in October 2021. Similarly, “Mission: Impossible – Fallout” made $6 million in its Thursday night previews before earning $61.2 million in its opening weekend in 2018. “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” which began its previews at 3 p.m. on Thursday, is expected to have a total weekend gross between $60 million-$65 million across 4,500 theaters. This would make it the second-highest opening for the Steven Spielberg-George Lucas franchise in the United States, following 2008’s “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull,” which earned $151.9 million in its five-day opening and $100.1 million in its three-day opening. Unlike “Crystal Skull,” which did not have previews, “Dial of Destiny” had a Thursday preview opening with $25 million across 4,260 theaters before the Memorial Day weekend.
Factors Affecting Box Office Projections
The projected performance of “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” is lower than that of the previous film in the franchise due to two main factors. Firstly, the film has received the worst reviews ever for an Indiana Jones film, with a 66% rating coming out of its Cannes Film Festival world premiere. Secondly, the film’s audience is primarily older, similar to the audience of the James Bond franchise. However, it is important to note that the “Mission: Impossible” franchise is not experiencing the same age-related decline, as the upcoming film “Dead Reckoning” is expected to have a franchise-best opening of $100 million over five days starting July 12. This is partly attributed to the anticipated success of “Top Gun: Maverick,” which is expected to have a halo effect on the franchise. Despite the mixed reviews and aging audience, social media chatter about “Dial of Destiny” remains mostly positive. Fans express excitement for the film, praising its action-packed nature and the performance of Harrison Ford as Indiana Jones. They also appreciate the historic contribution and career of composer John Williams. While there are some negative comments regarding the story, throwback elements, and sequel clichés, they are not as prominent as the positive comments from fans.
Social Media Buzz for “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny”
According to social media analytics firm RelishMix, there is significant buzz surrounding “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” on social media platforms. The film’s social media universe, which includes Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube views, has reached 296.4 million. The majority of this buzz is generated on Lucas channels and is cross-promoted on several Disney movie channels with brand tie-in spots. RelishMix notes that the integration of these promotional efforts has been successful. However, the film’s social media buzz falls behind that of “No Time to Die” (692.5 million), “Top Gun: Maverick” (401 million), and “Hobbs and Shaw” (961.4 million). In terms of Thursday previews, “No Time to Die” had previews representing 27% of its $23.3 million first Friday, while “Fallout” had previews representing 26% of its $22.8 million Friday. “Dial of Destiny” will benefit from the extended holiday weekend, with Monday and Tuesday contributing to its box office performance. However, July 4th is historically a slower day for moviegoing.
“Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” will be showcased in 400 IMAX auditoriums, 900 premium large format (PLF) screens, 280 D-Box theaters, and 85 Screen X hubs. The film marks the directorial shift from franchise architect Steven Spielberg to filmmaker James Mangold. In this latest installment, Indiana Jones teams up with his goddaughter, played by Phoebe Waller-Bridge, in search of a device that can turn back time. Despite the aging protagonist and negative reviews, fans of the franchise express their love for the iconic character and their nostalgia for the 39 years of the franchise. While there are some criticisms, they are relatively subdued compared to the overall positive reception.
In summary, “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” is expected to have a strong opening weekend at the box office, although projections are lower than its predecessor. The film has garnered mixed reviews, but fans on social media are largely positive and excited about the film. The extensive marketing efforts have generated significant buzz, although it falls behind other blockbuster films in terms of social media engagement. With its wide theatrical release and the holiday weekend, “Dial of Destiny” has the potential to be a successful addition to the Indiana Jones franchise.