Box Office Preview: Analysis and Predictions

Two wide entries held previews Thursday, with the Zoë Kravitz-directed thriller Blink Twice and Lionsgate/Edward R. Pressman presentation’s The Crow filing $820K and $650K in previews, respectively. Neither is expected to move the needle this weekend with single-digit openings.

It is surprising that Amazon MGM Studios’ $20M Blink Twice doesn’t perform better with Channing Tatum and solid reviews at 78% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. Despite critical support, the sex thriller only received three stars from PostTrak audiences Thursday night with a 50% definite recommend. On the other hand, The Crow received a dismal 1-star rating.

Sony Affirm’s faith-based film, The Forge, received five stars from moviegoers and an 88% definite recommend. The movie managed to accumulate $600K on Thursday night showtimes. The Alex Kendrick-directed film only cost $5M before P&A, making it a cost-effective project for Sony.

Sony has had success with previous Kendrick Brothers’ films, like War Room which turned into a Labor Day box office win in 2015. Despite the positive reception, it is unlikely that The Forge will reach the heights achieved by War Room, which grossed close to $68M.

This weekend is set to be dominated by one of two Disney movies: Alien: Romulus or Deadpool & Wolverine. Alien: Romulus is expected to outperform Deadpool & Wolverine with an $18M opening compared to the latter’s $17M.

Alien: Romulus closed the week with $56.3M across 3,885 locations. The Fede Alvarez-directed space horror film had a close race on Thursday against the Marvel Studios movie, with Alien: Romulus grossing $2.6M compared to $2.5M for Deadpool & Wolverine at 3,960 theaters.

Box Office Comparisons and Projections

D&W reached week 4 with $42M and a total of $558.8M. Despite its success, it has not surpassed last summer’s Barbie, which ended its domestic run at $636.2M. It Ends with Us from Sony and Wayfarer Studios completed its second week with $35.2M after a $2.2M Thursday at 3,739 sites, accumulating a total of $108.9M.

Fathom Events’ Coraline 15th-anniversary screening grossed $1.3M on Thursday, totaling $16M for the week and $19.1M across 1,535 locations. The movie has a lifetime cumulative earnings of $101.4M. Laika continues to impress with their unique storytelling.

The weekend box office predictions point towards Disney’s movies dominating the theaters, while smaller releases like Blink Twice and The Forge struggle to gain momentum. It will be interesting to see how the box office numbers play out and whether any surprises arise in the coming days.

Box Office

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